CLEVELAND, Ohio — Their colors look ugly to Buckeye fans. Their name is unmentionable. And their national championship, which was marred by spying controversies last season, will always carry an asterisk in Columbus.
But the 2023 Michigan Wolverines are also the standard to which this season’s Ohio State team should be compared. The Buckeyes want what Michigan has, and Ohio State is returning a Wolverine-sized portion of its roster in pursuit of that goal. The offseason renaissance followed a third straight loss in The Game, which boiled the tension in this rivalry to a 21st-century high.
But for all their irreconcilable differences, the 2024 Buckeyes share plenty of similarities with the 2023 Wolverines. Ohio State may not want to hear that, and Michigan’s standard bearers may not be around anymore to compare the teams up close. But like the pandemic-era Wolverines in Ohio State’s rearview mirror, these new Buckeyes and the old Michigan might be closer than they appear.
As cleveland.com continues Maychigan Week, here are nine similarities between Michigan’s championship team and the stacked OSU contender spawned by UM’s success:
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- A new era has arrived in the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry, bringing a complicated question along with it
1. The Reinforcements
Michigan returned double-digit starters, several more players with playing experience and added nine transfers with starting experience last offseason. And that still might not match the offseason Ohio State just finished.
The 2024 Buckeyes return eight starters from a defense that ranked third nationally in yards per play last season. They return four of five starting offensive lineman, two dynamic skill players in TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka, and they’ve filled in the blanks with experienced transfers, in-house veterans and/or high-level recruits.
Alabama transfer Caleb Downs joins the OSU secondary fresh off a freshman season that featured 107 tackles, two interceptions and a forced fumble. Quarterback Will Howard has already won a conference title at Kansas State, even if he still has to win the starting job against Devin Brown in Columbus. Linebacker Cody Simon played 13 games and 374 snaps as a reserve last season, and per usual, OSU’s wide receiver room is filled with five-star prospects like Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith to help replace the void left by Marvin Harrison Jr.
We still haven’t talked about center Seth McLaughlin, who ranked second in snaps on the country’s most talented offensive line (Alabama) last year. We still haven’t mentioned running back Quinshon Judkins, who ran for over 2,700 yards in two seasons at Ole Miss. And we still haven’t mentioned 2023 All-Big Ten honorees J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams, Denzel Burke by name.
All four had bright NFL futures. But like so many of the Michigan players who beat them last season, all four returned to win a championship.
2. The X-Factor
We knew Michigan had the defense, the offensive line and the run game to compete for a championship before its title run began. The question was the quarterback, even after J.J. McCarthy threw for 2,700 yards and 22 touchdowns compared to five interceptions during his first full season as a starter.
Sub receivers for offensive linemen, and this Ohio State team feels similarly confident at several position groups. But its biggest variable is also under center, and its biggest games may also be decided by the competence at that position.
McCarthy completed 70.2% of his passes for 369 yards, four touchdowns and, crucially, zero interceptions during Michigan’s pair of close wins over Ohio State and Alabama last season. In other words, the Michigan quarterback played his best ball — or at least avoided his worst — during the biggest games.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has barely seen Brown play meaningful snaps. And while Howard accounted for over 4,400 total yards and 48 total touchdowns during his final two seasons at Kansas State, he also completed 50.7% of his passes for 1,512 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions against ranked opponents (six games) in the same span. Howard will find better surrounding talent and a better offensive coaching staff in Columbus, but the Buckeyes will find themselves stuck on the couch next January if their quarterback can’t protect the ball against their best competition.
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3. The Schedule (and resulting critiques)
Ohio State can start 5-0 next season with five straight 30-point performances and zero opponents that manage 10 points against its defense, and pundits will still hesitate
Know how I know? Because we saw the same exact storyline unfold during Michigan’s dominant start to 2023. Forget five games. The ‘23 Wolverines started 9-0 with a +27.8-point scoring margin, and the college football public still poked holes in their resume due to a strength of schedule that, come to think of it, reminds a little of the start to Ohio State’s 2024 schedule.
The Buckeyes will be massive favorites against Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State and Iowa next season, which means their massive statistical outputs will mean little to schedule-haters among us. Ohio State will start the season ranked high, and it will likely win its matchups in impressive fashion.
But neither means much unless the Buckeyes stamp their status on bigger stages. Michigan solidified itself with wins over Penn State and Ohio State in November. OSU has the same chance beginning Oct. 12, when it will play at Oregon, then at Penn State two weeks later.
4. The NFL Talent
Michigan just celebrated a school record with 13 players drafted in April, and the Wolverines sent six more players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. Seems like a strong crop, right?
Well, Ohio State has 12 players projected as top-100 players in next year’s draft, according to mockdraftdatabase.com, which creates a consensus big board based on mock drafts across the internet. Draft projections feel useless this time of year, but NFL talent clearly counts in college football’s title race.
Of the last five national champions, all five finished at least tied for first in draft picks produced during the corresponding draft. Michigan followed the trend, and Ohio State would love to follow its rival’s example.
5. The Urgency
Nobody gets two chances at declaring themselves all in, and the Buckeyes have pushed as many chips toward the pot as any team this offseason. Day sacrificed play-calling while reshuffling his coaching staff. Then he raised enough NIL money to retain several stars from last year’s team, add another from Alabama and land a fifth-year quarterback. Now he has to play his cards right.
This might be Day’s best roster since he became coach back in 2019, which marks another tie between these Buckeyes and Jim Harbaugh’s championship Michigan team. If Harbaugh didn’t win a title last year, the thinking went, he might never do it at Michigan. That sentiment only grew stronger as UM became further tangled in the NCAA’s sign-stealing investigation. And while Day may have more talent in his pipeline, the same pressure exists for him to manage it properly.
Day needs to beat Michigan or win a national championship — ideally both — to solidify his Ohio State resume, and this team gives him his best chance to check each box. His contract, which runs through 2028, suggests that he’ll have other chances, too. But with each shortcoming, the fanbase wonders how many more. And with this offseason, Day played his cards in a manner that suggests he’s ready to cash in.
6. The Story Arc
Michigan had to fail before it achieved glory. Before beginning its three-year winning streak in The Game, the Wolverines lost eight straight (including two straight by at least three touchdowns. Before three straight College Football Playoff appearances, Michigan missed a bowl game during the pandemic era.
And while Ohio State remains the envy of most programs, its standards are high enough to consider its current state a nadir of sorts. Three straight losses to That Team will do that to you, especially when two of them kept the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff. Ohio State has never missed the playoff three times in four seasons since the format’s inception, and the Buckeyes haven’t lost four straight games to Michigan since 1991.
Now sounds like a good time for Ohio State to break both streaks. Failure teaches lessons; learners reap success. Michigan has a trophy to prove it, and the Buckeyes can follow a similar path one year later.
7. The Offensive Philosophy
In five seasons at Ohio State, Day’s teams have averaged six more rush attempts (37.3) than pass attempts (31.6) per game. Those numbers are skewed by blowout victories, but they still sound strange for college football’s premiere producer of first-round quarterbacks and receivers. And the Buckeyes posted them before Chip Kelly assumed play-calling duties.
Kelly’s UCLA teams ranked top 20 nationally in rushing attempts per game during three of his final four years as coach, which is thrice as often (once) as run-heavy Michigan achieved the same distinction. Few would compare the Wolverines’ offense to OSU’s, but I think the Buckeyes have a roster that fits Michigan’s philosophy in 2024.
Kelly won’t deploy three tight ends or seven offensive linemen as often as UM, but he will use OSU’s passing weapons to force defenses into light boxes, and he will not be afraid to run the ball once the defense cooperates. Think Michigan hesitated to trust McCarthy, who became a top-five NFL draft pick, with 30-pass responsibilities? Then think about what a run-oriented coordinator might do with Howard, who has completed just 58.8% of his college passes.
No shade: Those numbers should improve with Ohio State’s weaponry and Kelly’s play calls. The Buckeyes can still boast a potent offense with Howard under center. But they can also boast a dominant defense and one of the country’s top running back tandems. They can use Howard’s legs to keep defenses honest, too. And strange as it sounds, Ohio State could follow Michigan’s blueprint to a national title.
8. The Game At Home
Keep it simple: Ohio State has lost twice as many road games (four) as home games (two) in this rivalry since 2000. They’re nine games under .500 (24-33-4) in Ann Arbor all time compared to about .500 (27-28-2) in Columbus. And given that Michigan re-tooled its roster and coaching staff this offseason, 2024 feels like a bad time to visit Ohio State in November.
Or a perfect time — depends who you ask. Buckeye nation won’t forget how Michigan acted the last time it played in Columbus. Fans will keep receipts on the flag UM planted on Buckeye turf, and players will remember (or be reminded) of the damming quotes Wolverine players offered after the game.
Home-field advantage has always mattered in this rivalry. Just ask 2023 Michigan, which beat the Buckeyes by a score in Ann Arbor last season. Would that result have held in Columbus? Can re-tooling Michigan hang with peak Ohio State inside a sold-out Ohio Stadium with revenge on its mind?
Or will the Wolverines regret their celebration and trash talk from 2022?
9. The Result?
Their colors look ugly to Buckeye fans. Their name is unmentionable. But Michigan’s national championship will remain an argument-ender until the Buckeyes match the accomplishment.
It doesn’t matter how many points Ohio State wins by this November, nor does it matter how poorly Michigan transitions out of the Harbaugh era. As long as the Wolverines have the more recent trophy, they will flex that accomplishment in every rivalry quarrel. Call it tainted if you want, and feel free to celebrate whatever sanctions Michigan will suffer when the NCAA completes its sign-stealing investigation.
But when you do, prepare to hear that banners hang forever. And if the 2024 Buckeyes can’t hang one of their own, then prepare for another long offseason spent confronting the key difference between that team and 2023 Michigan.
Last year’s Wolverines have what the current Buckeyes want.
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